Reading progress

Leea, an author-led practice.

Churn shows up at the end.
The rupture starts earlier.

I help CRM and Lifecycle teams identify a critical journey transition, organize the evidence and leave with a measurable intervention.

Author-led practice applying AI to CRM and Lifecycle. AI organizes the evidence, the decision is mine.

Synthetic demonstration

One customer, four rows

This demonstration shows how I propose organizing a trajectory. Each row is a period with a start, an end and a state. The data is synthetic.

One customer's history in episode format
cliente_idestadoiniciofim
1001trial2024-01-052024-02-04
1001ativo_basic2024-02-052024-07-31
1001ativo_pro2024-08-012024-11-15
1001churned2024-11-162024-12-31

Read out loud: customer 1001 trialled for a month, became a paying basic user, upgraded to pro in August, and cancelled on November 16. The monthly report says one thing: churn in November. The table says the customer upgraded 107 days before leaving, and that is where the question lives.

All example data on this page is synthetic, created for demonstration.

The problem

Retention read as a static rate

Every month, one number summarizes customer loss. A 3% churn, for instance. That number does not say when inside the month the loss happened, or what changed before it.

Compare ways to measure retention

How most measure it

3% Monthly churn, illustrative example

One number per month. No time inside the month, no state, no language. The same rate can hide a customer who canceled yesterday and another who had already gone quiet weeks earlier.

How I read it

The same aggregate rate can come from very different trajectories. See three illustrative clients in the same window.

Illustrative client A Drop at the end of the window. Not confirmed churn yet.
Illustrative client B Risk reversed in time, within the same window.
Illustrative client C No reversal in the window. Consolidating as a loss.
Same aggregate rate. Different trajectories. Illustrative demonstration data, not a client result.

The turn

Retention as a sequence of states

The Trajectory Architecture reconstructs the customer's relationship with the brand over time. The result is a State Map: where the customer is now, and where it can go. Click each state.

Circular diagram with the four customer states and the transition between them

Select a state

Active

Customer with recent behavior consistent with the journey's healthy pattern: frequent interactions, response to stimuli, language of continuity.

Language signals

  • Mentions of continuity, like "I will use it again" or "next time".
  • Fast response to communications.
  • Routine vocabulary, not farewell vocabulary.

Possible transition

  • if frequency drops and the tone changes.

At risk

Signs of behavioral and language decline appear before formal cancellation: lower frequency, shorter responses, absence of continuity mentions.

Language signals

  • Drop in interaction frequency.
  • Shorter, more neutral responses.
  • Disappearance of future tense verbs, like "will" or "plan to".

Possible transitions

  • if the intervention arrives in time.
  • if there is no response.

Dormant

No interaction within the window defined by the problem contract. Not confirmed churn yet. It is a state that can reverse or consolidate as a loss.

Language signals

  • No response to any stimulus.
  • No interaction recorded in the window.
  • Censoring indicator still open at the end of the window.

Possible transitions

  • with a targeted reactivation intervention.
  • Without reversal, it consolidates as real churn at the end of the window.

Recovered

Customer that resumed the healthy behavior pattern after a period of risk or dormancy. Recovery also has a state. It is not a single point.

Language signals

  • Return of interaction frequency.
  • Continuity language reappears.
  • Positive response to the recorded intervention.

Possible transitions

  • when the pattern consolidates.
  • in case of relapse.

Episode timeline

Drag the control. Above, the synthetic trajectory changes state across twelve weeks. Below, the illustrative rule recalculates the criteria and shows when a hypothesis should move to human review.

  1. Week 1 Active Weekly use, fast responses.
  2. Week 2 Active Routine pattern maintained.
  3. Week 3 Active Continuity mention in a routine contact.
  4. Week 4 Active Still in a healthy pattern.
  5. Week 5 At risk Frequency drops, response gets shorter.
  6. Week 6 At risk No mention of continuity.
  7. Week 7 Dormant No interaction this week.
  8. Week 8 Dormant Second week without response to any stimulus.
  9. Week 9 Recovered Responds to the reactivation intervention.
  10. Week 10 Recovered Frequency starts rising again.
  11. Week 11 Active Pattern consolidated.
  12. Week 12 Active Keeps the usage routine at the end of the window.
agent leea_retention 01

In this simulation, the rule is evaluated weekly. Three criteria, all of them must be met.

  • days without use 0 / 14
  • continuity mentions, 30d 2 / 0
  • frequency drop vs. baseline 0% / 40%
Monitoring. No criteria met. Watching. Some criteria have been met. Review. Three of three. The hypothesis is ready for human decision. Hypothetical test in progress. No new recommendation. Illustrative response observed. Counter reset.
SE  dias_sem_uso            >= 14
E   mencoes_continuidade_30d =  0
E   queda_frequencia         >= 40%
ENTAO  especificar('hipotese_recuperacao')

The 14-day cutoff is illustrative. In a real diagnostic, any threshold would need to come from the available history, be documented and pass human validation.

Illustrative trajectory and numbers, generated for demonstration.

The method

Sulco and its vocabulary

Sulco is the methodology. These are the terms it uses to name each part of the work.

Meaning Reading Journey Time Reading CRM Decision Intervention Measurement

Sulco

Methodology for reading meaning, trajectory and CRM intervention.

Sulco de Dados

Data infrastructure: states, events, exposures, transitions.

Trajectory Architecture

Logic for the time based reconstruction of the customer's relationship with the brand.

State Map

How the customer moves through the stages of the journey.

Turning Point

Actionable hypothesis about the moment a change in language precedes a change in behavior.

Live Calibration

Recurring cycle of testing, measurement, assumption review and model updates.

The operating framework

The CICLO in five steps

Each step produces a verifiable artifact. Open each one to see what comes out of it.

C Context and Contract

Defines the exact retention problem: population, time window, constraints, success criteria.

  • problem_contract
I Identity and Instrumentation

Gathers the brand corpus (campaigns, emails, surveys, support) and the data contract. Maps voice rules and brand protection limits: what the brand does not allow an AI to generate.

  • brand_corpus
  • identity_map
  • protection_diagnosis
C Cohorts, Cycles and Episodes

Time based reconstruction of customer data. Structures behavior into continuous episodes, with start date, end date and a censoring indicator: what separates a customer still active at the end of the window from real churn.

  • episode_fact
L Reading and Decision

Crosses behavioral variation with language change. Formulates the Turning Points.

  • decision_record
O Orchestration and Optimization

Specifies the CRM intervention: treatment versus control group, eligibility rules, channels, message. Human approval and controlled execution.

  • intervention_spec
  • measurement_record

Demonstration architecture

How automation could be specified

This excerpt documents one possible architecture. It is not in production. AI agents would read, classify and write a specification; any implementation or send would depend on the client and human approval.

  1. 01
    SQL

    Build the episodes

    One query sweeps the CRM history and turns loose events into episode rows, with a start, an end and a state. It is the four row table from above, run over the whole base.

    in eventos_crm out episodios.csv

  2. 02
    Make

    Schedule and fetch

    In the proposed architecture, a trigger would schedule the query and deliver the result to the agent. This flow is a specification, not an executed integration.

    in cron 0 7 * * 1 out payload json

  3. 03
    leea_sentido + leea_retem

    Read the language and apply the rule

    This is where the agents come in, and there are two. leea_sentido reads the text of the customer's last contact and decides whether there is a continuity mention, which is what code does not do well. leea_retem takes that classification, joins it with the numbers and applies the cutoff. The arithmetic itself stays in code, not in the model. The one calling both in the right order is leea_maestro.

    in episodios + texto out intervention_spec.json

  4. 04
    human

    Review before any implementation

    The proposed specification includes audience, copy, control, risks and acceptance criteria. Without human review, no recommendation moves to implementation.

    in intervention_spec out approved or returned

  5. 05
    CRM

    Specify sending and measurement

    The diagnostic defines how to preserve control, record exposure and compare populations. Implementation and sending are outside the offer.

    in approved journey out measurement_record

In the hypothesis, agents support reading and documentation. They do not set thresholds, send campaigns or approve actions. Code calculates; people decide.

How the work gets done

From orchestration to retention

The demonstration architecture separates eight narrow roles and one orchestrator. They document how the reading could be divided, with a human gate and explicit limits.

I do not sell AI agents or production operations. These roles are documented prototypes used to explain an architectural hypothesis.

The method, Sulco

Defines analytical intelligence, interpretation of meaning and trajectory reading.

Agent Layer

Represents how a workflow could organize evidence and prepare specifications.

Deterministic Layer, code and data

Runs the calculations, consolidates history and processes metrics.

Human Decision

Defines what the brand can test, protect and put live.

orchestrator leea_maestro

Describes which role would be called, in what order and with which data. The specification maintains state, avoids write conflicts and includes a human gate.

configures: execution order, approval gates and reprocessing limits
  1. 01Plan

    leea_plano

    The planner. Takes a vague request and returns a scoped problem: which population, which transition, which window, and what counts as success.

    Differentiator: sets the success criterion before seeing the data, so the metric that looks good afterwards is not the one chosen

  2. 02Build

    leea_base

    The one that cleans. Removes duplicates, fixes broken dates, flags invalid contacts and separates who was still active at the end of the window from who actually left.

    Differentiator: censoring rule, which is what stops counting as churn someone whose term simply had not ended yet

    leea_constroi

    The builder. Turns loose events into episodes with a start, an end and a state. It builds the table you saw above, for the whole base.

    Differentiator: a state grammar specific to each brand, because "active" does not mean the same thing in subscription and in education

  3. 03Read

    leea_sentido

    The language and semiotics reading. It reads what the customer wrote in support, in surveys and in campaign replies, and classifies what is a continuity signal and what is an exit signal.

    Differentiator: brand lexicon and protection limits, what the brand will not let an AI write in its name

    leea_padrao

    The pattern catcher. Looks at the whole base and finds repeating trajectories, groups that behave alike and the point in time where behavior turns.

    Differentiator: pattern capture crossing behavior with language, not just with usage counts

  4. 04Act

    leea_retem

    Retention. This is the role illustrated in the panel. It would evaluate criteria and recommend when a hypothesis should move to human review.

    Differentiator: threshold set from the base's own history, not from an industry benchmark

    leea_cresce

    The one that grows. It works the other side of the same reading: where the customer is ready to upgrade, buy again or refer, and when to speak without getting in the way.

    Differentiator: opportunity window with a frequency cap, so growth does not cannibalize retention

  5. 05Improve

    leea_melhora

    The one that improves. Compares who received it against the control group, says whether the rule held up, and returns the corrected cutoff to the earlier agents. It is what closes the loop.

    Differentiator: recalibrates against a control group and also records what was discarded, not only what worked

In the proposed architecture, learning would return to planning and the retention hypothesis. This illustrates the need for recalibration, not a recurring Leea offer.

The demonstration makes dependencies and controls visible. It does not prove an implemented chain or end-to-end operation.

The LLM interprets and coordinates. The code calculates. The connector prepares. The human decides and approves irreversible action.

Evidence and limits

Every proof needs a status

Real professional experience

My track record

My demonstrated experience in CRM, Lifecycle, automation, governance and measurement.

View stories
Real professional case

Fênix

Product semiotics applied to email and landing pages, inside a full orchestration plan. It is not a Leea delivery.

View Fênix case
Real professional case

Monchu

Data reading and consumer psychology applied to experience. An RFM score, stage-based offers and surveys took a party from 300 to 500 to 2,000 to 3,000 attendees per edition.

View stories
Conceptual strategy case

Abrindo Caminhos

Language used to read the brand. The institutional agenda becomes segmentation, journey and nurturing. Documented strategy, not production execution.

View case
Conceptual strategy case

Boa Leitura

Language used to design prospecting. A social project becomes an acquisition channel, with the invited guest as the high value lead. Documented strategy, not production execution.

View case
Synthetic demonstration

Sulco

Tables, maps and rules illustrate the hypothesis with synthetic data. They are not client results.

View demonstration
Method study

Leea

Leea is a retention study that reads the signals preceding the decision to cancel across four layers: behavior, brand voice, semiotics and time spent in each journey state.

The complete authorial case is currently available in Portuguese only.

Four-step process

  1. Frame the problem and transition.
  2. Organize the evidence and its limits.
  3. Design the intervention and measurement.
  4. Decide the next step.

Minimum access

Prefer anonymized CSV files, client-run queries, examples without PII, a data dictionary and read-only access only when essential and approved.

Fit

Where this reading fits best

The team feels something changed (activation, risk, retention, reactivation or expansion) only after the KPI has already moved. The diagnostic locates the transition, gathers the signals that support the hypothesis and defines how to measure the next test.

This helps when

  • There is an active CRM and an owned channel, even if the journey is not mapped yet.
  • The history has timestamps, even if nobody has organized it into episodes yet.
  • Someone at the table can decide the next step, even if the decision itself is not clear yet.

If this describes the team, the conversation starts with a transition.

How I work

Lifecycle Transition Diagnostic, my first move

This is how I move when I join a CRM operation. Within ten business days, with the right data in hand, I already have a journey mapped, a transition identified and an intervention ready to test.

10 business days 1 journey 1 transition up to 3 sources 1 primary channel

That ends with one documented decision:

  • test an intervention;
  • fix the instrumentation;
  • collect more evidence;
  • close the hypothesis.

1. Problem contract and transition map

Journey, population, states, observable change, decision at stake, inclusions, exclusions and limitations.

2. Signal inventory and quality

Events, timestamps, messages, current rules, sources, gaps and reading limits.

3. Prioritized intervention hypothesis

Audience, channel, entry condition, proposed rule, human control, risks and acceptance.

4. Tracking and measurement plan

Events, properties, baseline, denominators, population, window, comparison, causal limits, success and guardrails.

5. Backlog and executive playback

What to test, instrument or leave unautomated, with dependencies, owners, open issues and prioritization.

Next step

Map a real transition

Describe the journey at stake, what changed and which data already exists. I will respond if the diagnostic fits the scope.